The Fallout Effect
A hit TV show is bringing renewed interest in decade-old games
So, you just finished watching Season 1 of Fallout on Amazon Prime, and you’re left thinking, 'Well, that was a pretty bleak vision of humanity’s future, but also… man, that was good.' You’re not alone—the show achieved the highest viewership ever for an Amazon Prime Video title in a single week.
My personal connection to this game franchise is strong. It’s one of the original games I vividly remember playing on our family PC in the late '90s, and I’ve spent countless hours wandering the post-apocalyptic landscape in every game since.
I’ll be diving into the knock-on economic effects of the show’s release shortly, but first, for those of you less familiar with the lore of Fallout, a brief summary is below.
Brief summary of the Fallout games
The "Fallout" game franchise is a series of post-apocalyptic role-playing video games originally created by Interplay Entertainment and now developed by Bethesda Game Studios. Here's a brief summary of its history:
Fallout (1997): The first game in the series, set in a post-apocalyptic Southern California. Released in 1997, it introduced players to a world devastated by a nuclear war in 2077.
Fallout 2 (1998): A sequel to the original, released in 1998. It builds on the first game's mechanics with improvements and a larger world to explore. The storyline continues the saga of the post-apocalyptic world, focusing on the descendant of the first game's protagonist.
Fallout 3 (2008): After a long hiatus and a change in developers, Bethesda Game Studios released Fallout 3. This installment transitioned the series from isometric 2D graphics and turn-based gameplay to 3D graphics and real-time combat and set in the Washington, D.C. area.
Fallout: New Vegas (2010): Developed by Obsidian Entertainment, this game returned to the West Coast, specifically the Mojave Desert and the Las Vegas area.
Fallout 4 (2015): Bethesda's follow-up to Fallout 3, set in post-apocalyptic Boston. It introduced more refined graphics, deeper customization options, and a voice-acted protagonist.
Fallout 76 (2018): The most recent main installment, which marks the series' first foray into online multiplayer gameplay. Set in West Virginia, it allows players to explore the open world and survive against the environment and other players.
There are several other spin-offs within the universe including a popular mobile game called Fallout Shelter that is a casual “base builder.”
The impact of the show
As you can see, except for the multiplayer Fallout 76 (which was panned upon release and has never achieved hit status), the game franchise has laid fallow since 2015 despite its popularity. In the absence of a new game, what benefit could the show have on the ecosystem? Turns out, a lot.
The most recent installments of the game are experiencing a surge in popularity. The number of players playing Fallout 4 on Steam went from a ~25,000 a day in March to over 180,000 in April. Importantly, this only includes players on Steam, not those on consoles like PlayStation and Xbox.
Even Fallout: New Vegas, a game nearly 15 years old, experienced a surge to ~45,000 daily players in April. Another metric for player engagement, mod installations1, hit unprecedented levels making April 2024 the busiest month ever for Fallout 4 modding, with a total of 33.2 million mods installed.
Capitalizing on the surge in popularity
While there may not be a brand new game to capitalize on this revitalization of interest, Bethesda (the developer of Fallout) and Amazon are leaning in to get new customers hooked on the Fallout IP. Starting on May 9, Amazon Prime members were given free access to Fallout 3: Game of the Year Edition via Prime Gaming2. Additionally, Bethesda released a 'next-gen' update for Fallout 4 across all platforms, fixing a variety of bugs and stability issues in the now 9-year-old game. Unfortunately for Bethesda, this update was met with an outcry from its biggest fans because it was incompatible with many mods that had been developed over the years. Finally, Bethesda launched a partnership with Wizards of the Coast to create a line of Magic: The Gathering cards set in the Fallout universe. The cards quickly sold out, with resale platforms trading unopened packs for around $50, well above the initial $25-30 price.
Missed opportunity?
While Bethesda has introduced Fallout to a new wave of fans and enjoyed a revenue surge as players purchase Fallout 4, buy the Magic cards, or re-engage with older content, it is not in a position to fully maximize this opportunity. Fallout 5, the long-awaited next game, is likely 5-6 years away from release. New and old fans alike will need to get their fix with Season 2 (already announced due to the success of Season 1) and periodically revisit a slightly updated Fallout 4. Bethesda has harnessed the excitement from the show across many of their existing properties, but I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if this momentum had been channeled into a new game release instead of polishing one from a decade ago.
That being said, I loved seeing one of my favorite games of all time come to life on the screen and hope you did too.
Stay tuned.
Video game modding (short for "modification") is the process of alteration by players or fans of one or more aspects of a video game, such as how it looks or behaves. Mods may range from small changes and tweaks to complete overhauls, and can extend the replay value and interest of the game. Fallout 4 has robust modding community, with many creating mods to enhance gameplay or fix bugs that the developer never fixed.
The Last of Us saw a similar bump across both games when the Last of Us premiered on HBO and a 2-hour trial was offered to PS Plus Premium subscribers.